Gold will be the hardest hit commodity in the ‘massive crash’, the bear market in its early stages – Harry Dent
(Kitco News) – goldwhich has been trading upwards for 2023 and currently at around $1,930 an ounce, will reverse trend and see a significant drop as “the biggest crash of our lives” enters wave two, according to Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent.
Dent calls for gold to reach $900 an ounce by mid-2024.
He stressed that “gold is not a safe haven.” “I expect that gold It drops to $900 to $1,000. That would be much less than other commodities… It’s still a 40 to 45 percent drop from here.”
Dent’s track record includes correctly predicting the Japanese asset bubble, the DotCom bubble, and Donald Trump’s election as president in 2016.
Dent said the “bubble of everything” was made by the Fed’s loose monetary policy, which has caused booms in most asset classes, especially stocks.
“The boom in stocks from 2009 to late 2021 was 120 percent artificial,” he said. “It was fair [The Fed] Stimulating more and more to keep the stock market going up… This is taking a toxic financial drug, which when it finally goes down and fails, you have quit. ”
He predicted a “massive crash” amid an already bear market, once the Nasdaq hits a 2022 low of 10,088.
“I feel like the bottom line eventually at this point for the shares is likely to be…July or so of 2024,” Dent said. “Therefore, we are still in its infancy. To know that this crash is continuing and will go much deeper, we need to break the last low… which is 10088.”
He added that the “next wave” to the downside will occur once this critical level is reached. From an all-time high, Dent expects the Nasdaq to drop 92 percent and the S&P 500 to drop 86 percent.
Dent said that gold, along with other assets, will crash to $900 an ounce, but will eventually reach $4,000 after the markets recover and the next economic boom.
Dent spoke with Michelle McCurry, Editor-in-Chief and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News.
The Fed can’t fix this
Dent predicted that the Fed, which has raised interest rates by 425 basis points through 2022 in an effort to quell rising prices, would not be able to prevent a market crash.
“if [Jerome Powell] Turn around and focus on this, he said, it would seem really silly that he tightens up a little bit and then has to turn around and go back to easing. “This will prove how weak the economy is and make the Fed look reckless.”
He added that the Fed will lose its credibility if it moves towards loose monetary policy.
“By the time the Fed realizes it’s gone too far after overstimulating, and wants stimulus again, it won’t have much credibility,” he said. “the government [printed money] Long enough…it’s not working now and it’s counterproductive to central banks.”
Although he indicated that the Fed’s halt to tightening would be “smart,” he claimed that it would not prevent the inevitable crash in stocks.
“This economy is just going to ramp up stimulus,” he said. “You don’t have to choke on this bubble. All you have to do is stop feeding this bubble. So even if they pause, we won’t go back to normal. The stock market is still on the weak side.”
The next economic superpower
Dent, whose economic analysis revolves around demographic trends, predicted that India would emerge as the next economic superpower in the world due to its growing population and large proportion of youth.
“India and Southeast Asia will be much better than China [in the long-run]”One day, around the 50’s or 60’s, India will be the largest economy in the world, and maybe the US will still be a little bigger than China,” he predicted.
Dent claimed that China’s aging and declining population, along with increased investment in buildings, would weaken its economy over the course of the century.
“China has really peaked in their demographics,” he said. “China will go by 2100, from 1.4 billion people to 770 million. They will be the first emerging country to peak in demographic trends and decline.”
He added that China had “overbuilt its economy… 22 percent of their homes and offices are empty. They are building things to stimulate their economy. They are not printing money. They are printing apartments.”
His prognosis for India was more positive.
“India is the next big country where urbanization can turn 1 percent annually,” he said.
Although he expected a decline gold By 2024, Dent said, India’s growth bodes well goldLong term price forecast. He made particular mention of gold consumption in the country, which is the world’s second largest gold importer.
“If India is the next big thing, gold will boom, because Indians buy and use gold for security, jewelry and everything else,” he said. “So gold, for fundamental reasons, is going to do well and go higher in the next boom.”
To learn about Dent’s long-term prediction of the Bitcoin price, as well as how to weather the “massive crash” he predicted, watch the video above.
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